Brexit—is it all over? If ardent Leave supporters are to be believed, Brexit is done now that Article 50 has been triggered. “Brexit” means the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union. This won’t happen for at least two years. Due to the complexities of leaving the EU and striking a trade deal with the EU27, many people now accept that a “transitional period” will be required from March 2019 and that this period could last for many years. Some experts in trade negotiations talk in terms 10 years to reach agreement on a comprehensive trade deal.
The government is now talking about crashing out of the EU without a deal. Knowledgeable people say that this would be very damaging economically for the UK. This appears not to concern some people in the government. This is reckless. David Davis has admitted that he has not done an impact assessment of this scenario. He is hoping that everything will be alright. He is gambling with your future.
So, is it all over? Hell no! It is just beginning. It may not feel like it, but we have only just begun the process of leaving. If we take the minimum period possible, the two years required under Article 50, there is plenty of time to influence things. A lot can happen in two years. Public opinion can shift dramatically in that time, especially if people feel worse off, or start to realise how badly they will be affected by the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. There are other factors to consider. Age was a key factor in the referendum result. Younger people voted overwhelmingly to Remain. Demographic shifts over the next few years will ensure that Remain supporters will be in a majority. But we can’t just sit back and wait for this to happen. We need to talk to our friends, neighbours and workmates to persuade them that
- they were badly misled
- the negative consequences of Leaving (even the most ardent Leavers say that there will be some negative consequences) will hit them the hardest, whilst the people at the top will reap the benefits
- everyone has the right to change their mind when circumstances change
- it is not too late to do something about it.
Fervent Leavers like the term “Hard Brexit”. They call for a “Hard Brexit”. This is ironic, but is also terribly sad as most of them will suffer the hardships resulting from Brexit. On the 25th of March, 100,000 people from all over the country, and from all walks of life, protested against Brexit and especially a “Hard Brexit”. Were they depressed? Were they down? Judge for yourself here. We will not be ignored
These are the words that came to my mind during the National March to Parliament on the 25th of March
- Up beat
- Winners don’t give up
- Peaceful resistance
- We are many
- The future
- No Snowflake!
- Proud to be a European
- Brits don’t quit.
The people on that march know they can win this fight. They know that the leading Brexiteers have no clothes. They know that the mood will shift and the tide will turn over the coming years.
What many Leavers mean by “Brexit” is a complete severing of ties with the EU. If this happens at all, it won’t happen for 10-12 years. A long time! In the words of the great baseball player Yogi Berra, “it ain’t over till it’s over”. Or my own favourite, “it ain’t over till the fat lady sings”.